A decade after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and social figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
